March 2026 Market Trends: Energy Shock, Market Stress and a Return to First Principles March was a geopolitical shock month, and markets priced it accordingly. The escalation involving the US, Israel and Iran pushed energy sharply higher, reset inflation expectations and quickly displaced the more stable backdrop that had prevailed only weeks earlier. The key issue was not simply the move in oil itself, but the extent to which it forced a repricing of the broader macro path:

February 2026 ended with a seismic geopolitical development that will shape markets well into the spring. Yet the month’s volatility was building well before this geopolitical flashpoint. Slowing US growth, sticky inflation, tariff policy uncertainty, and concerns over AI-driven capital expenditure had already unsettled markets.

January 2026: When the Dollar Blinked, Markets Rotated A weaker dollar reshaped global market leadership in January, lifting emerging markets, Asia, and commodities while leaving bonds largely unchanged. Our latest Macro Snapshot explores what drove the divergence and what it says about the early-year investment landscape.

As 2025 came to a close, it delivered an unusually constructive backdrop for investors, with economic data increasingly pointing to a soft landing, monetary policy turning decisively supportive, and markets embracing an environment where growth and liquidity aligned. Risk assets powered through persistent geopolitical uncertainty, ending the year on firm footing as investors stayed laser-focused on fundamentals amid the year-end rally.

November’s narrative blended political theatre, fiscal stability, and a subtle recalibration of global risk appetite, shifting from early-month optimism toward mid-to-late-month caution and volatility. The UK’s budget saga dominated domestic headlines, but markets were more focused on shifting expectations for interest-rate cuts, slowing wage growth, and a stubbornly weak productivity outlook. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy remained firm.

October extended the year’s upbeat tone, with global data pointing firmly toward a soft landing for the world economy. Inflation continued to ease, central banks trimmed rates, and investors embraced the idea that slower growth doesn’t have to mean recession. The result: another strong month across asset classes, with global equities rising, and the MSCI World Index hitting a fresh record high.

If you’re an investor trying to make sense of market noise, September offered a valuable reminder: policy signals move markets long before political headlines fade. The month showed how a single shift in monetary tone can reset global risk appetite — from Wall Street to emerging Asia — and why diversification is becoming strategic again, not just defensive.

Shifts in policy, trade drama, and what it all means for your money August is usually a quieter month in markets, with many traders and fund managers on summer break. Not this year. Policy signals from central bankers and fresh trade tensions kept investors firmly on their toes. The chart below provides a visual snapshot of what investment returns looked like for a selection of assets and regional interests for the month of August in sterling terms.  Central banks: the balanc